It’s Fed versus market as traders bet balance sheet slows hiking

The Federal Reserve may begin to reduce its balance sheet soon. I discuss the most likely method of doing so (passive, without interruption, and clear communication on the desired level of assets.

“I’m dealing with a Federal Reserve with an unlimited balance sheet that is desperately looking for. the global economy slows and the Fed commits to keep its target rate for overnight loans between.

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I’m betting on the market. Rates versus Balance Sheet. I have no idea why the Fed can’t just say – hey, conditions have changed, we are going to not hike and slow the balance sheet shrinkage and maintain a larger balance sheet than previously thought. The instant reaction will likely be driven by what they say and do on rates.

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While almost no one expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates Wednesday, traders are betting that. the central bank’s balance sheet. What’s more, the same day, the Treasury is set to.

 · And they asked: “Why would the market be right today?” That was a rhetorical question. Yet, these bets – that are “almost always wrong” about the Fed’s rate decisions – are now being incessantly cited to show that the Fed will cut its target range for the federal funds rate.

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Led by the Fed, central bankers of some major countries have held off on hiking. market experts believe this is because of the Fed’s recent swing to a more accommodating interest rate stance, along.

Over the past 7 years, we as well as others (if not those who believe in magic money trees, or managing other people’s money while blogging) have repeatedly said that when it comes to "market" returns, look no further than the size of the Fed’s balance sheet – the single best indictor of where the S&P500 is headed to next.

Interest rate futures show traders are currently betting the Fed won’t raise rates at all next year. After weeks of market volatility and calls by President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates, the US central bank instead did it again, and stuck by a plan to keep withdrawing support from an economy it views as strong.

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